Objective sputum colour assessment and clinical outcomes in bronchiectasis: data from the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC).

BACKGROUND: A validated 4-point sputum colour chart can be used to objectively evaluate the levels of airway inflammation in bronchiectasis patients. In the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC), we tested whether sputum colour would be associated with disease severity and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We used a prospective, observational registry of adults with bronchiectasis conducted in 31 countries. Patients who did not produce spontaneous sputum were excluded from the analysis. The Murray sputum colour chart was used at baseline and at follow-up visits. Key outcomes were frequency of exacerbations, hospitalisations for severe exacerbations and mortality during up to 5-year follow-up. RESULTS: 13 484 patients were included in the analysis. More purulent sputum was associated with lower forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), worse quality of life, greater bacterial infection and a higher bronchiectasis severity index. Sputum colour was strongly associated with the risk of future exacerbations during follow-up. Compared to patients with mucoid sputum (reference group), patients with mucopurulent sputum experienced significantly more exacerbations (incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.38; p<0.0001), while the rates were even higher for patients with purulent (IRR 1.55, 95% CI 1.44-1.67; p<0.0001) and severely purulent sputum (IRR 1.91, 95% CI 1.52-2.39; p<0.0001). Hospitalisations for severe exacerbations were also associated with increasing sputum colour with rate ratios, compared to patients with mucoid sputum, of 1.41 (95% CI 1.29-1.56; p<0.0001), 1.98 (95% CI 1.77-2.21; p<0.0001) and 3.05 (95% CI 2.25-4.14; p<0.0001) for mucopurulent, purulent and severely purulent sputum, respectively. Mortality was significantly increased with increasing sputum purulence, hazard ratio 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.24; p=0.027), for each increment in sputum purulence. CONCLUSION: Sputum colour is a simple marker of disease severity and future risk of exacerbations, severe exacerbations and mortality in patients with bronchiectasis.

Cost-sensitive ordinal classification methods to predict SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity.

OBJECTIVE: To study the suitability of costsensitive ordinal artificial intelligence-machine learning (AIML) strategies in the prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity. MATERIALS & METHODS: Observational, retrospective, longitudinal, cohort study in 4 hospitals in Spain. Information regarding demographic and clinical status was supplemented by socioeconomic data and air pollution exposures. We proposed AI-ML algorithms for ordinal classification via ordinal decomposition and for cost-sensitive learning via resampling techniques. For performance-based model selection, we defined a custom score including per-class sensitivities and asymmetric misprognosis costs. 260 distinct AI-ML models were evaluated via 10 repetitions of 5×5 nested cross-validation with hyperparameter tuning. Model selection was followed by the calibration of predicted probabilities. Final overall performance was compared against five well-established clinical severity scores and against a 'standard' (non-cost sensitive, non-ordinal) AI-ML baseline. In our best model, we also evaluated its explainability with respect to each of the input variables. RESULTS: The study enrolled n = 1548 patients: 712 experienced low, 238 medium, and 598 high clinical severity. d = 131 variables were collected, becoming d ' = 148 features after categorical encoding. Model selection resulted in our best-performing AI-ML pipeline having: a) no imputation of missing data, b) no feature selection (i.e. using the full set of d ' features), c) 'Ordered Partitions' ordinal decomposition, d) cost-based reimbalance, and e) a Histogram-based Gradient Boosting classifier. This best model (calibrated) obtained a median accuracy of 68.1% [67.3%, 68.8%] (95% confidence interval), a balanced accuracy of 57.0% [55.6%, 57.9%], and an overall area under the curve (AUC) 0.802 [0.795, 0.808]. In our dataset, it outperformed all five clinical severity scores and the 'standard' AI-ML baseline. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: We conducted an exhaustive exploration of AI-ML methods designed for both ordinal and cost-sensitive classification, motivated by a real-world application domain (clinical severity prognosis) in which these topics arise naturally. Our model with the best classification performance exploited successfully the ordering information of ground truth classes, coping with imbalance and asymmetric costs. However, these ordinal and cost-sensitive aspects are seldom explored in the literature.

Ceftaroline Fosamil for the Empiric Treatment of Hospitalized Adults with cSSTI: An Economic Analysis from the Perspective of the Spanish National Health System.

Purpose: Complicated skin and soft tissue infections (cSSTI) are associated with high healthcare resource use and costs. The emergency nature of cSSTI hospitalizations requires starting immediate empiric intravenous (IV) antibiotic treatment, making the appropriate choice of initial antibiotic therapy crucial. Patients and Methods: The use of ceftaroline fosamil (CFT) as an alternative to other IV antibiotic therapies for the empiric treatment of hospitalized adults with cSSTI (vancomycin, linezolid, daptomycin, cloxacillin, tedizolid) was evaluated through cost consequences analysis. The model structure was a decision tree accounting for four different pathways: patients demonstrating early response (ER) either discharged early (with oral antibiotic) or remaining in hospital to continue the initial therapy; non-responders either remaining on the initial IV therapy or switching to a second-line antibiotic. The model perspective was the Spanish National Health System. Results: CFT resulted in average percentage of patients discharged early (PDE) of 24.6% (CI 19.49-30.2%) with average total cost per patient of €6763 (€6268-€7219). Vancomycin, linezolid, daptomycin and tedizolid resulted in average PDE of 22% (17.34-27.09%), 26.4% (20.5-32.32%), 28.6% (22.08-35.79%) and 26.5% (20.39-33.25%), respectively, for a total cost per patient of €6,619 (€5,902-€6,929), €6,394 (€5,881-€6,904), €6,855 (€5,800-€7,410) and €7,173 (€6,608-€7,763), respectively. Key model drivers were ER and antibiotic treatment duration, with hospital costs accounting for over 83% of the total expenditures. Conclusion: Given its clinical and safety profile, CFT is an acceptable choice for cSSTI empiric therapy providing comparable ER and costs to other relevant antibiotic options.

Assessment of 28-Day In-Hospital Mortality in Mechanically Ventilated Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: An International Cohort Study.

Factors associated with mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 patients on invasive mechanical ventilation are still not fully elucidated. OBJECTIVES: To identify patient-level parameters, readily available at the bedside, associated with the risk of in-hospital mortality within 28 days from commencement of invasive mechanical ventilation or coronavirus disease 2019. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective observational cohort study by the global Coronavirus Disease 2019 Critical Care Consortium. Patients with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 requiring invasive mechanical ventilation from February 2, 2020, to May 15, 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Patient characteristics and clinical data were assessed upon ICU admission, the commencement of invasive mechanical ventilation and for 28 days thereafter. We primarily aimed to identify time-independent and time-dependent risk factors for 28-day invasive mechanical ventilation mortality. RESULTS: One-thousand five-hundred eighty-seven patients were included in the survival analysis; 588 patients died in hospital within 28 days of commencing invasive mechanical ventilation (37%). Cox-regression analysis identified associations between the hazard of 28-day invasive mechanical ventilation mortality with age (hazard ratio, 1.26 per 10-yr increase in age; 95% CI, 1.16-1.37; p < 0.001), positive end-expiratory pressure upon commencement of invasive mechanical ventilation (hazard ratio, 0.81 per 5 cm H2O increase; 95% CI, 0.67-0.97; p = 0.02). Time-dependent parameters associated with 28-day invasive mechanical ventilation mortality were serum creatinine (hazard ratio, 1.28 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.15-1.41; p < 0.001), lactate (hazard ratio, 1.22 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.11-1.34; p < 0.001), Paco2 (hazard ratio, 1.63 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.19-2.25; p < 0.001), pH (hazard ratio, 0.89 per 0.1 increase; 95% CI, 0.8-14; p = 0.041), Pao2/Fio2 (hazard ratio, 0.58 per doubling; 95% CI, 0.52-0.66; p < 0.001), and mean arterial pressure (hazard ratio, 0.92 per 10 mm Hg increase; 95% CI, 0.88-0.97; p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This international study suggests that in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 on invasive mechanical ventilation, older age and clinically relevant variables monitored at baseline or sequentially during the course of invasive mechanical ventilation are associated with 28-day invasive mechanical ventilation mortality hazard. Further investigation is warranted to validate any causative roles these parameters might play in influencing clinical outcomes.

Community-acquired pneumonia severity assessment tools in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: a validation and clinical applicability study.

OBJECTIVE: To externally validate community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) tools on patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia from two distinct countries, and compare their performance with recently developed COVID-19 mortality risk stratification tools. METHODS: We evaluated 11 risk stratification scores in a binational retrospective cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia in São Paulo and Barcelona: Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), CURB, CURB-65, qSOFA, Infectious Disease Society of America and American Thoracic Society Minor Criteria, REA-ICU, SCAP, SMART-COP, CALL, COVID GRAM and 4C. The primary and secondary outcomes were 30-day in-hospital mortality and 7-day intensive care unit (ICU) admission, respectively. We compared their predictive performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, calibration plots and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Of 1363 patients, the mean (SD) age was 61 (16) years. The 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 24.6% (228/925) in São Paulo and 21.0% (92/438) in Barcelona. For in-hospital mortality, we found higher AUCs for PSI (0.79, 95% CI 0.77-0.82), 4C (0.78, 95% CI 0.75-0.81), COVID GRAM (0.77, 95% CI 0.75-0.80) and CURB-65 (0.74, 95% CI 0.72-0.77). Results were similar for both countries. For the 1%-20% threshold range in decision curve analysis, PSI would avoid a higher number of unnecessary interventions, followed by the 4C score. All scores had poor performance (AUC <0.65) for 7-day ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: Recent clinical COVID-19 assessment scores had comparable performance to standard pneumonia prognostic tools. Because it is expected that new scores outperform older ones during development, external validation studies are needed before recommending their use.

Cost-effectiveness Comparison of Ceftazidime/Avibactam Versus Meropenem in the Empirical Treatment of Hospital-acquired Pneumonia, Including Ventilator-associated Pneumonia, in Italy.

PURPOSE: Ceftazidime/avibactam (CAZ-AVI) is a fixed-dose combination antibiotic approved in Europe and the United States for patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia, including ventilator-associated pneumonia (HAP/VAP). The economic benefits of a new drug such as CAZ-AVI are required to be assessed against those of available comparators, from the perspective of health care providers and payers, through cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses. The objective of this analysis was to compare the cost-effectiveness of CAZ-AVI versus meropenem in the empirical treatment of appropriate hospitalized patients with HAP/VAP caused by gram-negative pathogens, from the perspective of publicly funded health care in Italy (third-party perspective, based on the data from the REPROVE (Ceftazidime-Avibactam Versus Meropenem In Nosocomial Pneumonia, Including Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia) clinical study; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01808092). METHODS: A patient-level, sequential simulation model of the HAP/VAP clinical course was developed using spreadsheet software. The analysis focused on direct medical costs. The time horizon of the model selected was 5 years, with an annual discount rate of 3% on costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Clinical inputs for treatment comparisons were mainly obtained from the REPROVE clinical study data. In addition to clinical outcomes observed in the trial, the model incorporated impact of resistance pathogens, based on data from published studies and expert opinion. Certain assumptions were made for some model parameters due to a lack of data. FINDINGS: The analysis demonstrated that the intervention sequence (CAZ-AVI followed by colistin + high-dose meropenem) versus the comparator sequence (meropenem followed by colistin + high-dose meropenem) provided a better clinical cure rate (+13.52%), which led to a shorter hospital stay (-0.40 days per patient), and gains in the number of life-years (+0.195) and QALYs (+0.350) per patient. The intervention sequence had an estimated net incremental total cost of €1254 ($1401) per patient, and the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €3581 ($4000) per QALY gained, well below the willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000 ($33,507) per QALY in Italy. IMPLICATIONS: The model results showed that CAZ-AVI is expected to provide clinical benefits in hospitalized patients with HAP/VAP in Italy at an acceptable cost compared to meropenem.

Assessment of a Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) Assay for the Rapid Detection of Pathogenic Bacteria from Respiratory Samples in Patients with Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia.

Rapid identification of the causative agent of hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) will allow an earlier administration of a more appropriate antibiotic and could improve the outcome of these patients. The aim of this study was to develop a rapid protocol to identify the main microorganisms involved in HAP by loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) directly from respiratory samples. First of all, a rapid procedure (<30 min) to extract the DNA from bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), endotracheal aspirate (EA) or bronchoaspirate (BAS) was set up. A specific LAMP for Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia and Acinetobacter baumannii was performed with the extracted solution at 65 °C for 30-40 min. Overall, 58 positive BAL and 83 EA/BAS samples were tested. The limits of detection varied according to the microorganism detected. Validation of the LAMP assay with BAL samples showed that the assay was 100% specific and 86.3% sensitive (positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 50%) compared with culture. Meanwhile for BAS/EA samples, the assay rendered the following statistical parameters: 100% specificity, 94.6% sensitivity, 100% positive predictive value and 69.2% negative predictive value. The turnaround time including sample preparation and LAMP was circa 1 h. LAMP method may be used to detect the most frequent bacteria causing HAP. It is a simple, cheap, sensitive, specific and rapid assay.

Economic analysis of ceftaroline fosamil for treating community-acquired pneumonia in Spain.

Background: Adults admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) impose significant burden upon limited hospital resources. To achieve early response and possibly early discharge, thus reducing hospital expenditure, the choice of initial antibiotic therapy is pivotal.Methods: A cost-consequences model was developed to evaluate ceftaroline fosamil (CFT) as an alternative to other antibiotic therapies (ceftriaxone, co-amoxiclav, moxifloxacin, levofloxacin) for the empiric treatment of hospitalized adults with moderate/severe CAP (PORT score III-IV) from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System (NHS).Findings: Compared with ceftriaxone, the model predicted an increase in the number of CFT-treated patients discharged early (PDE) (30.6% vs. 26.1%) while decreasing initial antibiotic failures (3.8% vs. 7.6%). For patients with pneumococcal pneumonia, CFT was cost-saving vs. ceftriaxone (by 1.2%) and significantly increased PDE (32.1% vs. 24.6%). CFT resulted in cost-saving vs. levofloxacin, due lower initial antibiotic therapy costs and increased PDE (30.6% vs. 14.9%). Moxifloxacin and co-amoxiclav early response rate of 53.63% and 54.24% resulted in cost neutrality vs. CFT, with direct comparison hampered by the significantly different early response criteria utilized in the literature.Conclusions: Despite a higher unit cost, CFT is a reasonable alternative to other agents for adults hospitalized with moderate/severe CAP, given the projected higher PDE achieved with similar or lower total costs.

The burden of community-acquired bacterial pneumonia in the era of antibiotic resistance.

INTRODUCTION: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a significant global health problem and leading cause of death and hospitalization in both the US and abroad. Increasing macrolide resistance among Streptococcus pneumoniae and other pathogens results in a greater disease burden, along with changing demographics and a higher preponderance of comorbid conditions. Areas covered: This review summarizes current data on the clinical and economic burden of CAP, with particular focus on community-acquired bacterial pneumonia (CABP). Incidence, morbidity and mortality, and healthcare costs for the US and other regions of the world are among the topics covered. Major factors that are believed to be contributing to the increased impact of CABP, including antimicrobial resistance, the aging population, and the incidence of comorbidities are discussed, as well as unmet needs in current CABP management. Expert commentary: The clinical and economic burden of CABP is staggering, far-reaching, and expected to increase in the future as new antibiotic resistance mechanisms emerge and the world's population ages. Important measures must be initiated to stabilize and potentially decrease this burden. Urgent needs in CABP management include the development of new antimicrobials, adjuvant therapies, and rapid diagnostics.

Is One Sample Enough? ß-Lactam Target Attainment and Penetration into Epithelial Lining Fluid Based on Multiple Bronchoalveolar Lavage Sampling Time Points in a Swine Pneumonia Model.

Describing the disposition of antimicrobial agents at the site of infection is crucial to guide optimal dosing for investigational agents. For antibiotics in development for the treatment of nosocomial pneumonia, concentrations in the epithelial lining fluid (ELF) of the lung are frequently determined from a bronchoscopy at a single time point. The influence of profiles constructed from a single ELF concentration point for each subject has never been reported. This study compares the pharmacokinetics of two ß-lactams, ceftolozane and piperacillin, among different ELF sampling approaches using simulated human regimens in a swine pneumonia model. Plasma and ELF concentration-time profiles were characterized in two-compartment models by the use of robustly sampled ELF concentrations and by the random selection of one or two ELF concentrations from each swine. A 5,000-subject Monte Carlo simulation was performed for each model to define the ELF penetration, as described by the ratio of the area under the concentration curve (AUC) for ELF to the AUC for free drug in plasma (AUCELF/fAUCplasma) and the probability of target attainment (PTA). Given the intersubject variability of the ELF penetrations observed, differences between the models developed using robust numbers of ELF samples versus one or two ELF samples per swine were minimal for both drugs (maximum dispersion < 20%). Using a threshold exposure target of 60% of the time that the free drug concentration remains above the MIC target, the ceftolozane and piperacillin regimens achieved PTAs of ≥90% at MICs of up to 4 and 1 µg/ml, respectively, among the different ELF sampling strategies. These models suggest that the ELF models constructed with concentrations from sparse ELF sampling time points result in exposure estimates similar to those constructed from robustly sampled ELF profiles.

Epidemiology of ICU-acquired pneumonia.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Review of the epidemiology of ICU-acquired pneumonia, including both ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) in nonventilated ICU patients, with critical review of the most recent literature in this setting. RECENT FINDINGS: The incidence of ICU-acquired pneumonia, mainly VAP has decrease significantly in recent years possibly due to the generalized implementation of preventive bundles. However, the exact incidence of VAP is difficult to establish due to the diagnostic limitations and the methods employed to report rates. Incidence rates greatly vary based on the studied populations. Data in the literature strongly support the relevance of intubation, not ventilatory support, in the development of HAP in ICU patients, but also that the incidence of HAP in nonintubated patients is not negligible. Despite the fact of a high crude mortality associated with the development of VAP, the overall attributable mortality of this complication was estimated in 13%, with higher mortality rates in surgical patients and those with mid-range severity scores at admission. Mortality is consistently greatest in patients with HAP who require intubation, slightly less in VAP, and least for nonventilated HAP. The economic burden of ICU acquired pneumonia, particularly VAP, is important. The increased costs are mainly related to the longer periods of ventilatory assistance and ICU and hospital stays required by these patients. However, the different impact of VAP on economic burden among countries is largely dependent on the different costs associated with heath care. SUMMARY: VAP has significant impact on mortality mainly in surgical patients and those with mid-range severity scores at admission. The economic burden on ICU-acquired pneumonia depends mainly on the increased length of stay of these patients.

Assessment of in vivo versus in vitro biofilm formation of clinical methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus isolates from endotracheal tubes.

Our aim was to demonstrate that biofilm formation in a clinical strain of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) can be enhanced by environment exposure in an endotracheal tube (ETT) and to determine how it is affected by systemic treatment and atmospheric conditions. Second, we aimed to assess biofilm production dynamics after extubation. We prospectively analyzed 70 ETT samples obtained from pigs randomized to be untreated (controls, n = 20), or treated with vancomycin (n = 32) or linezolid (n = 18). A clinical MRSA strain (MRSA-in) was inoculated in pigs to create a pneumonia model, before treating with antibiotics. Tracheally intubated pigs with MRSA severe pneumonia, were mechanically ventilated for 69 ± 16 hours. All MRSA isolates retrieved from ETTs (ETT-MRSA) were tested for their in vitro biofilm production by microtiter plate assay. In vitro biofilm production of MRSA isolates was sequentially studied over the next 8 days post-extubation to assess biofilm capability dynamics over time. All experiments were performed under ambient air (O2) or ambient air supplemented with 5% CO2. We collected 52 ETT-MRSA isolates (placebo N = 19, linezolid N = 11, and vancomycin N = 22) that were clonally identical to the MRSA-in. Among the ETT-MRSA isolates, biofilm production more than doubled after extubation in 40% and 50% under 5% CO2 and O2, respectively. Systemic antibiotic treatment during intubation did not affect this outcome. Under both atmospheric conditions, biofilm production for MRSA-in was at least doubled for 9 ETT-MRSA isolates, and assessment of these showed that biofilm production decreased progressively over a 4-day period after extubation. In conclusion, a weak biofilm producer MRSA strain significantly enhances its biofilm production within an ETT, but it is influenced by the ETT environment rather than by the systemic treatment used during intubation or by the atmospheric conditions used for bacterial growth.

Antivirals for influenza-Like Illness? A randomised Controlled trial of Clinical and Cost effectiveness in primary CarE (ALIC4 E): the ALIC4 E protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Effective management of seasonal and pandemic influenza is a high priority internationally. Guidelines in many countries recommend antiviral treatment for older people and individuals with comorbidity at increased risk of complications. However, antivirals are not often prescribed in primary care in Europe, partly because its clinical and cost effectiveness has been insufficiently demonstrated by non-industry funded and pragmatic studies. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Antivirals for influenza-Like Illness? An rCt of Clinical and Cost effectiveness in primary CarE is a European multinational, multicentre, open-labelled, non-industry funded, pragmatic, adaptive-platform, randomised controlled trial. Initial trial arms will be best usual primary care and best usual primary care plus treatment with oseltamivir for 5 days. We aim to recruit at least 2500 participants ≥1 year presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI), with symptom duration ≤72 hours in primary care over three consecutive periods of confirmed high influenza incidence. Participant outcomes will be followed up to 28 days by diary and telephone. The primary objective is to determine whether adding antiviral treatment to best usual primary care is effective in reducing time to return to usual daily activity with fever, headache and muscle ache reduced to minor severity or less. Secondary objectives include estimating cost-effectiveness, benefits in subgroups according to age (<12, 12-64 and >64 years), severity of symptoms at presentation (low, medium and high), comorbidity (yes/no), duration of symptoms (≤48 hours/>48-72 hours), complications (hospital admission and pneumonia), use of additional prescribed medication including antibiotics, use of over-the-counter medicines and self-management of ILI symptoms. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Research ethics committee (REC) approval was granted by the NRES Committee South Central (Oxford B) and Clinical Trial Authority (CTA) approval by The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. All participating countries gained national REC and CTA approval as required. Dissemination of results will be through peer-reviewed scientific journals and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN27908921; Pre-results.

Burden of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia in adults across Europe: A literature review.

BACKGROUND: The burden of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) among adults in Europe is poorly defined. METHODS: Structured searches of PubMed were conducted to identify the incidence of pneumococcal CAP among adults across Europe. RESULTS: The overall incidence rates for CAP was 68-7000 per 100,000 and the incidence in hospitalised CAP cases of all causes was 16-3581 per 100,000. In general the incidence of CAP increased consistently with age. Available data indicated higher burdens of pneumococcal CAP caused in groups with more comorbidities. Most cases of pneumococcal CAP (30%-78%) were caused by serotypes covered by PCV13 vaccine; the incidence of PCV13-related pneumonia decreased after the introduction of childhood vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high burden adult pneumococcal CAP in Europe despite use of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, particularly in elderly patients with comorbidities. CAP surveillance presented wide variations across Europe. Pneumococcal CAP has to be monitored very carefully due to the possible effect of current vaccination strategies.

Biomarkers kinetics in the assessment of ventilator-associated pneumonia response to antibiotics - results from the BioVAP study.

PURPOSE: Our aim was to evaluate the role of biomarker kinetics in the assessment of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) response to antibiotics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a prospective, multicenter, observational study to evaluate in 37 microbiologically documented VAP, the kinetics of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), mid-region fragment of pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM). The kinetics of each variable, from day 1 to 6 of therapy, was assessed with a time dependent analysis comparing survivors and non-survivors. RESULTS: During the study period kinetics of CRP as well as its relative changes, CRP-ratio, was significantly different between survivors and non-survivors (p=0.026 and p=0.005, respectively). On day 4 of antibiotic therapy, CRP of survivors was 47% of the initial value while it was 96% in non-survivors. The kinetics of other studied variables did not distinguish between survivors and non-survivors. In survivors the bacterial load also decreased markedly. Adequate initial antibiotic therapy was associated with lower mortality (p=0.025) and faster CRP decrease (p=0.029). CONCLUSIONS: C-reactive protein kinetics can be used to identify VAP patients with poor outcome as soon as four days after the initiation of treatment. (Trial registration - NCT02078999; registered 3 August 2012).

Community-acquired pneumonia in adults: Highlighting missed opportunities for vaccination.

Pneumococcal pneumonia remains a clear unmet medical need for adults worldwide. Despite advances in vaccine technology, vaccination coverage remains low, putting many people at risk of significant morbidity and mortality. The herd effect seen with paediatric vaccination is not enough to protect all older and vulnerable people in the community, and more needs to be done to increase the uptake of pneumococcal vaccination in adults. Several key groups are at increased risk of contracting pneumococcal pneumonia, and eligible patients are being missed in clinical practice. At present, community-acquired pneumonia costs over €10 billion annually in Europe alone. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination could translate into preventing 200,000 cases of community-acquired pneumonia every year in Europe alone. This group calls on governments and decision makers to implement consistent age-based vaccination strategies, and for healthcare professionals in daily clinical practice to identify eligible patients who would benefit from vaccination strategies.

Prognostic assessment in COPD without lung function: the B-AE-D indices.

Several composite markers have been proposed for risk assessment in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, choice of parameters and score complexity restrict clinical applicability. Our aim was to provide and validate a simplified COPD risk index independent of lung function.The PROMISE study (n=530) was used to develop a novel prognostic index. Index performance was assessed regarding 2-year COPD-related mortality and all-cause mortality. External validity was tested in stable and exacerbated COPD patients in the ProCOLD, COCOMICS and COMIC cohorts (total n=2988).Using a mixed clinical and statistical approach, body mass index (B), severe acute exacerbations of COPD frequency (AE), modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity (D) and copeptin (C) were identified as the most suitable simplified marker combination. 0, 1 or 2 points were assigned to each parameter and totalled to B-AE-D or B-AE-D-C. It was observed that B-AE-D and B-AE-D-C were at least as good as BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity), ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) and DOSE (dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation) indices for predicting 2-year all-cause mortality (c-statistic: 0.74, 0.77, 0.69, 0.72 and 0.63, respectively; Hosmer-Lemeshow test all p>0.05). Both indices were COPD specific (c-statistic for predicting COPD-related 2-year mortality: 0.87 and 0.89, respectively). External validation of B-AE-D was performed in COCOMICS and COMIC (c-statistic for 1-year all-cause mortality: 0.68 and 0.74; c-statistic for 2-year all-cause mortality: 0.65 and 0.67; Hosmer-Lemeshow test all p>0.05).The B-AE-D index, plus copeptin if available, allows a simple and accurate assessment of COPD-related risk.